If I Picked The Winners

Tonight is the biggest night of the year in Hollywood. It could very well be considered entertainment's Superbowl. 

This is the first Oscar ceremony since the death of the movie critic, Roger Ebert. When he and Gene Siskel still had their movie review show, they hosted a "If We Picked The Oscars" special. I watched it every year. 

As a tribute to the two of them I now present today's blog post with the same exact premise. I am going to reveal who I would choose based on my movie experiences from this past year. 

Also I will include my predictions for whom I think academy voters have chosen to receive the coveted gold statue. I will be doing this for the 6 major categories. 

In addition I will be making some "wish picks." Nominees I want to win so much I can't be objective in their respective  categories.  

So here I go.....If I Picked The Winners

Best Supporting Actress
I have only seen the performances of 2 of the 5 nominees. So for me it's a two actress race. So this choice is easy. 

My Winner: Jennifer Lawrence
She's just a great actress and deserves to win based on the contrast between her "American Hustle" character and Katnis from the "Hunger Games" films. 

My Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence
This prediction is based on the notion that Ms. Lawrence right now is one of the darlings of the academy voters. June Squibb is an older actress nominated for the first time but is not known well enough to win. Her honor is just being nominated. I like my prediction but Sally Hawkins could be a surprise winner.  

Best Supporting Actor
Contrary to the Supporting Actress category I've seen all but one of the performances nominated, that omission would be Jared Leto in "Dallas Buyer's Club."

My Winner: Barkhad Abdi 
For a native Somalian living in Minneapolis, Minnesota at the time he was cast, this actor was outstanding in his first film, "Captain Philips". Given the extremely difficult task of acting next to 2 time Oscar winner, Tom Hanks, Abdi was up to it. He deserves to win but... 

My Prediction: Jared Leto
Leto's performance is the only one I haven't seen. But from everything I've read he is the odds on favorite. In a year where the political climate in Hollywood is focused on gay rights and same sex marriage Leto's type of role in "The Dallas Buyer's Club" is sure to be his ticket to Oscar gold. 

One final note on this category. In 2012 I couldn't believe that Jonah Hill was nominated in this same category for "Moneyball." As far as I was concerned he did nothing in that awful movie worthy of even being considered for an Oscar.

Now Hill is nominated again. I don't like Hill at all. I don't think he can act his way out of a traffic ticket. But in "Wolf of Wall Street", he did give his director, Martin Scorsese, more of a performance than I ever thought he was capable of. But that's all moot because he doesn't stand a chance of winning. But it really gets on my nerves that he is even in the conversation. 

Best Actress
Another 2 out of 5 situation as far as seeing performances is concerned. Even though I hated the movie I can't ignore the role Amy Adams played in "American Hustle". She's my favorite out of the 5 nominees. 
My Winner: Amy Adams

My Prediction: Cate Blanchette
From all the buzz this is the closest thing to a sure thing on Oscar night. Because of my limited knowledge I have to go with the media consensus on this one. 

Best Actor
"The Wolf Of Wall Street" is the most outrageous display of debauchery I've ever seen on a movie screen. It's a bizaro world on steroids, or should I say "cocaine". But for me it's like a cinematic car wreck. I was drawn to it. And even though just a few minutes into the picture, when I realized it was a disaster, I just couldn't look away. Of the 3 nominated performances I've seen from this category, Leonard DeCaprio deserves this award. 

He is Jordan Belfore in all his money swindling, drug addicted, sex crazed, criminally liable, morally bankrupt glory. He's probably not going to win but at least he has a Golden Globe. 
My Winner: Leonardo DeCaprio

My Prediction: Matthew McConaughey
McConaughey has been around a long time and has paid his dues. I felt that he should have at least been nominated for "The Lincoln Lawyer" a couple of years ago. 

But now that he is nominated he will win. Because he underwent such a drastic physical change and is the lead in a movie that's loosely linked with gay rights. (As I already discussed, a political "hot button" championed by actors  these days) McConaughey will rewarded with his own gold statue.  

Best Director
Who told the best story in the best way? That's the question I believe the academy member should ask when voting for the "best director" award. 

I have seen the work 4 of the 5 nominated films. I have not seen "Nebraska". With few exceptions in recent years, the winner of this award and the winner of the "Best Picture" award were linked.  

I've already stated a lot of the reasons for my choice in this category.  

"Wolf Of Wall Street" is the best, most outrageous, awful movie I've seen in a long time. I'll state again that the "car wreck" analogy is so appropriate. Based on his effort to get the story of Jordan Belfore to the screen the way he did, I've chosen my winner. 

He's Hollywood royalty and one of the greatest directors in the history of the motion pictures. 
My Winner: Martin Scorsese 

My Prediction: Alfonzo Cuaron
I think that more than in most recent years there the winning director will be chosen because votes for others will cancel each other out. I think the votes for the directors of "12 Years A Slave" and "American Hustle" will be split enough so that the director of "Gravity" will come out the winner. 

Best Picture
For me this choice was a process of elimination that reminds me of the way Bill Murray used to make his predictions on Saturday Night Live back in the 70's. 

"Dallas Buyer's Club", "Her", "Philomena", and "Nebraska" I haven't seen. The "Best Picture" winner could be among the but, I can't pick them. 

"Captain Phillips," was good but it was a little long and got a bit monotonous toward the end. The subplot of the military involvement seemed forced. Good individual performances but not the best picture. 

I've already praised efforts of the director and lead actor in "Wolf of Wall Street" to excess. However, I can't give the movie itself any award that has the word "best" associated with it. The part of my conscience that continuously protested the fact that I remained in the theater for the whole movie won't let me. 

I can't say how much I hated "American Hustle." I thought the story was boring and the characters were dull. It was one of those movies that I kept hoping would get better but it never did. 

"Gravity" took one of my favorite actresses, Sandra Bullock, one of the subjects that most fascinates me, space exploration, and a story of the worst possible scenario that could happen in outer space, used a ton of ground-breaking CG and special effects and still, somehow managed to make a very boring picture. 

The movie was a combination of two Tom Hanks movies: "Castaway" and "Apollo 13" but it didn't come close to being as entertaining as either of them. 

So for me it comes down to one movie. I found myself taken back and astounded the story the film is based on is true. I can't imagine living in a world where such a thing could have happened. 

But the movie puts you in the middle of such a world and effectively tells the true story. And it does so in an honest way that compels empathy for the main characters but doesn't force it out of you. 

The individual performances by the lead and supporting cast are outstanding. All 3 of the actors nominated for their roles deserve to win their awards. 

So because "Now You See Me" was not nominated, my pick for the "Best Picture" is... 
My Winner: 12 Years A Slave

My Prediction: Gravity
This year there are 9 nominees. I think that they can be divided into 3 levels. The nomination of "Nebraska", "Her", and "Philomena" is as far as academy members are willing to go to acknowledge that these movies deserved to be named among the this year's outstanding films but they are not the best. 

"Captian Phillips, "Wolf Of Wall Street", and "Dallas Buyers Club" are nominated because they are films that could have very easily been the best picture if the next level of nominees were not involved. The message in their being honored in this category is "you're a great movie but there was better." 

Finally, on the third level of the "Best Picture" nominees, "Gravity", "American Hustle", and "12 Years A Slave" are all films that deserve the Oscar. But once again, the distribution of the votes among the nominees will be split. Because I believe there will be a block of voters that will be divided between the other two, "Gravity" will be the last picture standing and thus the winner. 

So there are my predictions for the top 6 categories. There are other awards that are kind of important but I'll just sit back and just enjoy watching who wins those. I'm going to be judging my prognostication ability based on my predictions not my choices. I'll let you know how I do. 

I know this has been a long post but I can't end an article about the Oscars without mentioning the main reason I watch the show. I want to see how Disney does. 

So here are the categories that I am rooting for a nominee with ties Disney to win. 

Best Original Song: Let It Go
Like "Frozen", the movie it's from "Let It Go" has taken on a life of it's own. It's been sung all over the place. Idina Manzel, who sang it in the movie, will be performing it live on the show. If it doesn't win the best song Oscar I will be surprised. 

Best Animated Feature
"Frozen" is the 3rd highest grossing animated film of all time world wide. It's a cultural and box office juggernaut. Over 3 months after it's release it is still in theaters. It ranked 8th at the box office last weekend bringing in over $4 million in it's 14th week of release. How can it not win the Oscar? 

BTW I haven't seen any of the other nominees; not even "The Croods" or "Despicable Me 2." But even if I did I would still be rooting for "Frozen."

Best Animated Short
Again have not seen any of the nominees except the Disney film. "Get A Horse" is such an clever and innovative mix of classic old school and new animation that just like "Paper Man" last year it almost demands the Oscar. If any other short wins it will be a miscarriage of justice.

Best Original Score
Although it was expected to get some nominations for it's production or acting performances a nomination the "Best Original Score" category is the only one "Saving Mr. Banks" received. 

Although I really didn't care the movie it was a significant release for the Disney company at the end of 2013. I have to root for it to win. 

So those my Oscar picks and predictions for this year. Finding out how right they are is the main reason I watch each year. Being part of the universal conversation the on Monday is another reason. 

I don't, however, care at all for the red carpet or fashion show part of the whole Oscar ordeal. There's only dress anyone's ever worn to the Oscars, that I even has a place in my long term memory. It's the one made of 254 American Express cards that costume designer, Lizzy Gardner wore in 1995. (Google it and you'll see why). I just watch the awards ceremony. There's always the possibility that you will see pop culture history as it happens.

It will be an interesting show this year. I like this year's host, Ellen Degeneres, a lot. From watching her talk show I know she's very comfortable around people in the movie industry. 

As every year I look forward to the "In Memoriam" part of the show. Most notable on this year's list will include Paul Walker and James Gandolfini. It's always special to see the academy honor those the movie industry has lost over the last year. 

As promised I will report how well I did on my predictions this coming week.